* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP06 EP062009 07/30/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP062009 EP06 07/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 6.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 66% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 56% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 51% is 12.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP06 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 12.1 -140.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0730 18 1.6 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP062009 EP06 07/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)