Climatic and Anthropogenic Influence on Florida Bay Salinity
over the Past Century
Topical Area: Paleoecology
T. M. Cronin, L. Brewster-Wingard, S.E. Ishman,
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA; R.B. Halley and C.W. Holmes, U.S. Geological
Survey, St. Petersburg, FL; G.S. Dwyer, Department of Geology, Duke
University, Durham, NC
Establishing the causal factors
underlying 20th century historical trends in Florida Bay salinity
requires a firm understanding long-term variations in Florida Bay
salinity and its causes. In particular, one important question pertains to what
degree have human activities and natural climatic variability contributed to
recent periods of hypersalinity. We conducted multi-proxy faunal
(mollusk, foraminiferal, ostracode) and geochemical (stable isotopic, elemental
[Mg, Sr, Na]) analyses of radiometrically-dated sediment cores from
central and northeastem Florida Bay to establish semi-quantitative paleo-salinity
estimates for the mid-19th century to present.
Our results indicate that prior to major
20th century canal building, central Florida Bay experienced wide
interannual and decadal swings in salinity (from polyhaline to euhaline
conditions). Although additional research is needed, results to date indicate
an approximate 6-yr periodicity can be identified in some faunal and
geochemical records for the period 1870 through 1940 that appear to be
associated with well-known cycles of precipitation due to El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) Strong warm El Nino events bring heavy winter season
precipitation and accompanying reduced Florida Bay salinity; cool La Nina
events produce the opposite. In addition to high-frequency salinity
oscillations, there is a low frequency period (~13 years) evident in some
paleoecological salinity indicators suggesting decadal climatological processes
might also influence the Florida Bay ecosystem.
Beginning about 1910, and accelerating
until the 1940s, there is a directional shift towards higher salinities. By about 1940, there had been an apparent
disruption of the typical 6 year salinity-related faunal and geochemical
cycles and an increase in abundance of paleoecological indicators of
hypersalinity (>40-45 ppt).
Florida Bay essentially became "hypersensitized" to natural
climatic variability, a process which led to several periods of extreme
hypersalinity since 1940, such as the one that occurred during the late 1980s.
The causes of this mid-century salinity and ecosystem shift will be
discussed in terms of disruption of freshwater flow into Florida Bay and
changing patterns of climate and rainfall.